‹ Lab

Portfolio & risk intelligence

Shared exposure, drift, decay, incidents, disagreement, lineage and research priority. Information only — Risky Business owns risk.

Portfolio

Open tickets as one structure. Separate metrics — never one blended number. PAPER and REAL never mix.

PAPER: NOT ANALYZED YET

Runs every 30 minutes in the cloud worker.

REAL: NOT ANALYZED YET

Runs every 30 minutes in the cloud worker.

Model version health

Drift opens a review. Nothing is retrained or recalibrated automatically.

NO MODEL VERSIONS YET

Real-data validation is pending.

Recipe version health

Decay needs evidence; a short bad streak never retires a recipe.

NO RECIPE HEALTH YET

Needs settled real-evidence tickets.

Drift & alerts

Deduplicated; lifecycle open → acknowledged → resolved.

CRITICALSCHEMA DRIFTOPEN

kalshi: schema drift

seen 14× · since 2026-10-12 20:16 UTC

CRITICALOPS RESTORE FAILEDOPEN

Restore drill failed

seen 1× · since 2026-10-12 20:16 UTC

Provider incidents & trust

Incidents persist; trust recovers as incidents age. Trust is a state, not a probability.

kalshiUNTRUSTED UNTIL RESOLVED

recent 0.0% · historical 0.0% · incidents 30d 1 · open 1

CRITICALSCHEMA DRIFTOPEN

kalshi · 2026-10-12 · 14× · 0 records

Cross-provider disagreement

A research signal — disagreement never means the model is right.

0 recent cases · 0 autopsied · SMALL SAMPLE

Research queue

Ranked by Expected Information Value — a bounded heuristic, not a certainty. Operational work always comes first.

  1. 1. PROVIDER INCIDENT · score 3.194 · EIV 0.50kalshi: SCHEMA_DRIFT
  2. 2. COVERAGE GAP · score 0.095 · EIV 0.00Close data gap: NBA HISTORICAL_ODDS (UNVERIFIED)
  3. 3. COVERAGE GAP · score 0.095 · EIV 0.00Close data gap: NCAAF HISTORICAL_ODDS (UNVERIFIED)
  4. 4. COVERAGE GAP · score 0.095 · EIV 0.00Close data gap: NCAAF RESULTS (UNAVAILABLE)
  5. 5. COVERAGE GAP · score 0.095 · EIV 0.00Close data gap: NFL HISTORICAL_ODDS (UNVERIFIED)
  6. 6. COVERAGE GAP · score 0.095 · EIV 0.00Close data gap: NFL RESULTS (UNAVAILABLE)

Deferred: Real-data NBA moneyline validation (DEFERRED DATA); Season-phase regime breakdown (hypothesis) (DEFERRED DATA); First prop model (NBA points) validation (DEFERRED DATA)

Data lineage & contamination

Payload → record → feature → prediction → leg → ticket → experiment → finding. Contaminated results are marked, never deleted.

No contamination marks.

Trace the latest ticket ›

Hedge research & stress tests

Research only. A hedge is not assumed to improve EV; protection is never double-counted.

NO HEDGE ANALYSIS YET
NO STRESS TEST YET